The Making of a Budget War
Published on : Oct-15-2016 05:06:35
If you squint just so, and look out with the right kind of eyes, you can almost see the Legislature unfurling the skull and crossbones of the Jolly Roger. Lawmakers with swords between teeth are on the verge of hoisting the flag to temporarily replace our bleeding mother pelican. They are the Brothers Lafitte to Gov. Bobby Jindal’s William C.C. Claiborne, each calling for a bounty on the other.
But the ship has not yet sailed, and may actually stay docked if history is any indication. Jindal, more missing duck than lame duck with a presidential campaign underway, still has his supporters. Especially in the House, which in some respects, in some corners, is divided against itself. Yet its leaders are meeting with the upper brass in the Senate already, which is no small feat. Usually autonomous, the chambers’ top pirates are making a real effort to get on the same page and strategize.
The ideas being floated — veto overrides and holding bills hostage — would be politically dangerous during any other time. But there’s nothing routine about what’s happening in state government today. Over the next five fiscal years, beginning with the budget that has to be crafted in the spring session, shortfalls will range between $1.4 billion and $1.8 billion. Maybe more. Midyear budget cuts are also being implemented in an attempt to right the current fiscal year before it ends June 30.
The latest threats coming from the Legislature involve forcing Jindal into a veto override. The plan of attack starts with the passage of a slate of bills early enough in the session so that there’s time to reverse the governor’s veto pen. It would be historic; over the past century there have only been a very small handful of successful override votes.
Jindal has vowed to ax any tax increase, or any bill that slashes tax exemptions without a revenue neutral approach. Many lawmakers say they’ve lost patience with his stance, especially with $300 million in cuts to higher education on the table, plus a slew of other draconian reductions. But don’t interpret the battle cry to mean the House is solidly behind the plan, which might include suspending certain tax credits and exemptions. The suggestion from legislative leaders is that resentment will continue to grow.
If not an override, there’s talk of using veto-proof resolutions to temporarily suspend exemptions and credits. But an early snag with the concept can be found with the House’s fiscal hawks. While a schedule of one-year exemptions could probably generate enough cash to fill the budget hole, depending on what’s proposed, it amounts to one-time money for recurring needs, which the hawks hate. It’s among the main culprits for Louisiana’s budget mess.
While the leadership is devising a strategy to take the battle to Jindal, he won’t be an army of one. In his corner will be the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry, a big influencer at the Capitol. They spend a great deal of money on legislative races and a new political action committee designation means they can spend more than ever this fall. There are many lawmakers more interested in what LABI is going to do in the session than Jindal. Re-election looms over everything. It will be the glue that holds any compromise together.
Lawmakers are in a tight political spot. Do you cut your local university to the bone or do you take exemptions away from the biggest employer in your district? Maybe Jindal will give them an out, a way to kick the can down the road one more time. Too many lawmakers appear to want just that, opting instead to let the next governor make the tough decisions. It’s also not out of the question that lawmakers spend so much time plotting that they close down the session without passing a budget bill and have to come back in a special session. It has happened before, and in this kind of climate it seems like anything is possible.
We could see lawmakers fighting the governor, special interests fighting lawmakers, education officials pulling out all the stops, campaign consultants recruiting challengers for the fall ballot and public opinion remaining split on viable alternatives to deep cuts, based on recent polling. The latter is what matters most. With public opinion on their side, lawmakers can survive Jindal and the warring special interests. But it’s doubtful we’ll see any real shift.
Which brings us back to legislative independence. If lawmakers want to hoist the Jolly Roger, they should do it now. Most will lose their jobs due to term limits before another opening like this is presented. Let’s just hope time doesn’t run out before their collective courage does.
